Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in July 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in July 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In July 2024, 15 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 43 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 5 high-risk events and 23 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 11 high-risk events and 30 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to prioritize monitoring dengue fever in Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Nepal, and to generally monitor dengue fever in Honduras, Samoa, Iran, Argentina, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and French Polynesia; cholera in Nigeria, Somalia, Estonia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Mozambique; polio in Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Pakistan; mpox in South Africa, Thailand, and the DRC; yellow fever in Nigeria; diphtheria in Vietnam; and West Nile virus in the United States and Israel, to reduce the potential importation risks. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Honduras, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, and French Polynesia; yellow fever and cholera in Nigeria; and diphtheria in Vietnam, and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by dengue fever in Nepal, Samoa, Iran, Argentina, and Ghana; mpox in South Africa, Thailand, and the DRC; polio in Africa and Asia; yellow fever in Colombia and Peru; cholera in Africa; Lassa fever in Nigeria; plague in Mongolia; and West Nile virus in Israel.