Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in August 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in August 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In August 2024, 13 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 39 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 7 high-risk events and 27 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 13 high-risk events and 34 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to prioritize monitoring dengue fever in Bangladesh, Thailand, Viet Nam, Sri Lanka, Singapore, The Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Nepal, and to generally monitor dengue fever in Honduras, Brazil and Colombia; cholera in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Nepal; mpox in Thailand, Philippines, Pakistan and the DRC; diphtheria in Vietnam; polio in Pakistan and India; yellow fever in the DRC; Zika in India; West Nile virus disease in Israel and the United State; tularebacteriosis in Russia; chikungunya in India and France, and eastern equine encephalitis in the United States, to reduce the potential importation risks. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in Bangladesh, Thailand, Viet Nam, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Laos, Nepal, Honduras, Brazil and Colombia; cholera in Nigeria and the DRC; diphtheria in Viet Nam; and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by cholera in Nepal, outbreaks of mpox and West Nile virus disease in multiple countries, polio in countries such as Pakistan, yellow fever in the DRC, zika in India, tularebacteriosis in Russia, chikungunya in India and France.