Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in October 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in October 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In October 2024, 18 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 36 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 21 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 6 high-risk events and 34 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in Americas and Asia, Eastern equine encephalitis in the United States, mpox in Africa, Oropouche fever in the Americas, cholera in Africa, Chikungunya fever in Asia, West Nile virus in Greece and Zika in India. International travelers are advised to focus on the Dengue fever in Costa Rica of North America, Argentina of South America, and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and India of Asia, and the possible infection risks brought by the cholera in India. Compared with September, in October, it is also necessary to pay moderate attentionto the progress of the dengue fever epidemic in Argentina of South America, the mpox and cholera in Africa, and the yellow fever epidemic in South America.