Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in December 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in December 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In December 2024, 17 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 36 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 16 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 7 high-risk events and 34 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to pay general attention to dengue fever in United Kingdom and selected countries in Asia, mpox in Germany, poliomyelitis in Pakistan, Cholera in Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, South Sudan and Yemen, chikungunya fever in France and Pakistan, Oropuche fever in Vietnam, whooping cough in United States of America and Singapore, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in Oceania and Asia, Chikungunya fever and mumps outbreaks in India. Compared to November, general attention should be paid to dengue fever in UK, mpox in Uganda, Germany, Bulgaria and India, whooping cough in USA, Canada, Finland, Singapore in December.