Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in January 2025

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in January 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In January 2025, 18 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 31 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 12 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 5 high-risk events and 29 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to pay general attention to Chapare haemorrhagic fever outbreak in Bolivia, dengue fever outbreaks in Australia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, mpox outbreaks in the United Kingdom and France, chikungunya fever outbreak in India, polio outbreak in Pakistan, influenza outbreak in Japan, measles outbreak in the United States of America, Sudanese viral disease outbreak in Uganda and Zika virus disease outbreak in India, which may pose import risks. In terms of overseas travel risks, it is recommended that international travelers pay close attention to Oropouche and dengue fever outbreaks in Brazil, dengue fever outbreak in French Polynesia, cholera outbreak in Angola and Sudanese virus disease outbreak in Uganda. Compared to December 2024, general attention should be paid to Chapare haemorrhagic fever in Bolivia, dengue fever in Australia, mpox in France, yellow fever in Brazil, Sudanese virus disease in Uganda in Uganda in January 2025.