Dai Bingqin, Hao Feng, Zhang Yixin, Zhang Jiyu, Wang Shuzi, Liu Shaonan, Sun Yuan, Ma Jixiang, Sun Chengxi. Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of varicella in students aged 6−14 in Shandong, 2013−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202403100176
Citation: Dai Bingqin, Hao Feng, Zhang Yixin, Zhang Jiyu, Wang Shuzi, Liu Shaonan, Sun Yuan, Ma Jixiang, Sun Chengxi. Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of varicella in students aged 6−14 in Shandong, 2013−2022[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202403100176

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of varicella in students aged 6−14 in Shandong, 2013−2022

  • Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of varicella in students aged 6−14 years in Shandong province from 2013 to 2022, and provide reference for the effective prevention and control of varicella.
    Methods The incidence data of varicella in students aged 6−14 years in Shandong during this period were collected from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, software Geoda1.1.8 was used for global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation analysis on varicella incidence, and software SaTScan 9.6 was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis on varicella case count, population size, and geographical latitude and longitude, and ArcGis 10.7 software was used to map and visually display the spatiotemporal distribution of cases.
    Results A total of 70 328 cases of varicella were reported in students aged 6−14 years in Shandong from 2013 to 2022, with an average annual incidence of 66.72/100 000. The male to female ratio of the cases was 1.43∶1, the incidence peak was during November - January, with reported cases accounting for 40.56% (28 523/70 328).The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran's I index of each year ranged from 0.21 to 0.49 (P<0.05), indicating the existence of spatial clustering. The results of local spatial autocorrelation showed that the “high-high” clustering areas were mainly distributed in parts of Jinan, Qingdao, Zaozhuang and Jining. Spatiotemporal scanning analysis showed that the first class clustering areas were mainly distributed in Tengzhou, covering 9 inter-provincial border areas and the surrounding counties of Zaozhuang and Jining, from January 2015 to December 2019 (relative risk=3.86, log likelihood ratio=4497.44, P<0.05) .The second class clustering areas were distributed in the urban areas of Jinan and Qingdao and part areas of Dongying and Binzhou.
    Conclusion From 2013 to 2022, the incidence of varicella was high in students aged 6 to 14 years in winter in Shandong, and the clustering areas were mainly distributed in the counties bordering other provinces and the urban areas of large cities. It is necessary to strengthen the varicella surveillance and prevention in key areas.
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