李丽丽, 刘起勇, 林华亮, 许磊, 黄少平, 杨军. 北京市房山区手足口病与气象因素的时间序列分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(6): 458-462. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.007
引用本文: 李丽丽, 刘起勇, 林华亮, 许磊, 黄少平, 杨军. 北京市房山区手足口病与气象因素的时间序列分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2015, 30(6): 458-462. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.007
LI Li-li, LIU Qi-yong, LIN Hua-liang, XU Lei, HUANG Shao-ping, YANG Jun. Time series analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Fangshan District of Beijing[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(6): 458-462. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.007
Citation: LI Li-li, LIU Qi-yong, LIN Hua-liang, XU Lei, HUANG Shao-ping, YANG Jun. Time series analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Fangshan District of Beijing[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2015, 30(6): 458-462. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2015.06.007

北京市房山区手足口病与气象因素的时间序列分析

Time series analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Fangshan District of Beijing

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨气象因素对北京市房山区手足口病发病的影响,初步建立手足口病的早期预测模型。方法 选用乘法季节自回归移动平均模型(SARMA)分析房山区手足口病发病与气象因素的关系。利用2009 2013年资料建立模型,并用2014年1 8月资料对模型进行验证。结果 房山区手足口病发病与平均气温、相对湿度、降水量、气压等均有显著相关。SARMA(0,1)(1,0)12模型结果显示,平均温度升高1℉,相对湿度增加1%,平均气压降低100 Pa,将分别导致手足口病的发病率升高27.51%,12.40%,1.36%。拟合的模型可以对房山区手足口病发病进行短期预测。结论 气温、相对湿度、气压等气象因素与房山区手足口病发病相关,可将其作为预测房山区手足口病发病的指标。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the relationship between meteorological factors and epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fangshan district of Beijing, and provide evidence for the establishment of HFMD early prediction model. Methods Seasonal autoregressive andmoving average (SARMA) model was used to evaluate the relationship between monthly HFMD incidence and meteorological factors. Results The incidence of HFMD was obviously correlated with the average air temperature, average relative humidity, average atmospheric pressure and precipitation in Fangshan. It was found that a 1℉ increase in air temperature would lead to a 27.51% increase of monthly HFMD incidence, a 1% increase in relative humidity would lead to a 12.40% increase of monthly HFMD incidence and a 100 Pa decrease in average atmospheric pressure would lead to a 1.36% increase of monthly HFMD incidence. The established early prediction model SARMA(0,1)(1,0)12 revealed that the average air temperature, average relative humidity and average atmospheric pressure were correlated with the incidence of HFMD. The model was used to predict the incidence of HFMD in Fangshan from January to August, 2014. Conclusion Meteorological factors, such as average air temperature, average relative humidity and average atmospheric pressure, were correlated with the incidence of HFMD, which can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD in Fangshan.

     

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