洪志恒, 任瑞琦, 彭质斌, 冉陆, 廖巧红, 王亚丽, 李超, 涂文校, 孟玲, 倪大新. 2017年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(3): 191-194. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.03.006
引用本文: 洪志恒, 任瑞琦, 彭质斌, 冉陆, 廖巧红, 王亚丽, 李超, 涂文校, 孟玲, 倪大新. 2017年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(3): 191-194. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.03.006
HONG Zhi-heng, REN Rui-qi, PENG Zhi-bin, RAN Lu, LIAO Qiao-hong, WANG Ya-li, LI Chao, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(3): 191-194. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.03.006
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, REN Rui-qi, PENG Zhi-bin, RAN Lu, LIAO Qiao-hong, WANG Ya-li, LI Chao, TU Wen-xiao, MENG Ling, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(3): 191-194. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.03.006

2017年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2017

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2017年3月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计3月主要以发生在学校的其他感染性腹泻病、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、水痘、手足口病等传染病暴发事件为主。春节长假后特别是元宵节后各地活禽交易逐步恢复和重新活跃,在2017年疫情分布范围广、病毒污染面广且严重的情况下,预计近期人感染H7N9报告病例数有可能出现一定程度的回升,后期发展趋势还有待进一步观察。黄热病及寨卡病毒病等输入我国的风险持续存在,但近期因输入病例引发本地蚊媒传播的风险极低。结论 预计2017年3月全国总报告事件数和病例数将较2月有所上升。需重点关注人感染禽流感、季节性流感、诺如病毒病、黄热病和寨卡病毒病等公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in March 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, which was collected recently and in previous years, the most public health emergencies in March would be the outbreaks of other infectious diarrhea, influenza, mumps, varicella, and hand-foot-and-mouth disease in schools.After the spring festival, live poultry trade would be prosperous again, and due to the widespread of the outbreaks and serious virus contamination in this year, it is predicted that the incidence of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza virus might be higher in March, and the further development needs to be closely monitored. The risk of importation of Zika virus disease and yellow fever to China still exists, but it is very unlikely to cause local vector-borne transmission. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in March 2017 than in February in China. Close attention should be paid to the public health risks of human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal Influenza, viral diarrhoea,Zika virus disease and yellow fever.

     

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