孟玲, 王亚丽, 靳淼, 常昭瑞, 陈秋兰, 刘小波, 罗莉, 杨静, 任瑞琦, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 向妮娟, 倪大新. 2017年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(10/11): 805-809. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.006
引用本文: 孟玲, 王亚丽, 靳淼, 常昭瑞, 陈秋兰, 刘小波, 罗莉, 杨静, 任瑞琦, 涂文校, 洪志恒, 向妮娟, 倪大新. 2017年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2017, 32(10/11): 805-809. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.006
MENG Ling, WANG Ya-li, JIN Miao, CHANG Zhao-rui, CHEN Qiu-lan, LIU Xiao-bo, LUO Li, YANG Jing, REN Rui-qi, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, XIANG Ni-juan, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, October 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(10/11): 805-809. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.006
Citation: MENG Ling, WANG Ya-li, JIN Miao, CHANG Zhao-rui, CHEN Qiu-lan, LIU Xiao-bo, LUO Li, YANG Jing, REN Rui-qi, TU Wen-xiao, HONG Zhi-heng, XIANG Ni-juan, NI Da-xin. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, October 2017[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2017, 32(10/11): 805-809. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2017.10/11.006

2017年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, October 2017

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2017年10月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计2017年10月全国总报告事件数和病例数将与9月相当。部分南方重点省份登革热本地传播疫情仍将维持较高水平,输入病例导致本地传播的风险仍然存在;基孔肯雅热、寨卡病毒病等其他蚊媒传染病仍存在病例输入,并在蚊媒适宜地区造成本地传播的风险。人感染H7N9禽流感将继续出现散发病例。手足口病进入秋冬季发病高峰。诺如病毒所致病毒性腹泻将进入高发季节。流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、水痘等呼吸道传染病也将出现季节性升高。结论 2017年10月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,与9月相当;需关注登革热、基孔肯雅热、寨卡病毒病等蚊媒传染病、手足口病、感染性腹泻、人感染H7N9禽流感、季节性流感等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risks of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in October 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October would be similar to that in September in 2017. The risk of local dengue fever outbreaks in some southern provinces remains high; and the risk of local transmission caused by imported casesstill exists. The risks of the importations of Chikungunya fever Zika virus disease and other mosquito-borne diseases to China and causing local transmission following importation in areas where competent vectors still exists.Sporadic cases of human infection with influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to be reported. The autumn and winter incidence peak of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is coming. The incidence of viral diarrhea caused by norovirus would be high.The incidence of respiratory disease, such as seasonal influenza, mumps and varicella, would increase seasonally. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in October 2017 would be similar to that in October in previous years and that in September. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, Chikungunya fever and Zika virus disease, HFMD, viral diarrhea, human infection with H7N9 virus and seasonal influenza.

     

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