自回归移动平均模型乘积季节模型在南昌市手足口病疫情预测中的应用

涂志斌 李辉 刘明斌 胡茂红 戚京城 杨树 涂正波 王斌 吴景文

涂志斌, 李辉, 刘明斌, 胡茂红, 戚京城, 杨树, 涂正波, 王斌, 吴景文. 自回归移动平均模型乘积季节模型在南昌市手足口病疫情预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(11): 871-874. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.11.008
引用本文: 涂志斌, 李辉, 刘明斌, 胡茂红, 戚京城, 杨树, 涂正波, 王斌, 吴景文. 自回归移动平均模型乘积季节模型在南昌市手足口病疫情预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(11): 871-874. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.11.008
TU Zhi-bin, LI Hui, LIU Ming-bin, HU Mao-hong, QI Jing-cheng, YANG Shu, TU Zheng-bo, WANG Bin, WU Jing-wen. Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(11): 871-874. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.11.008
Citation: TU Zhi-bin, LI Hui, LIU Ming-bin, HU Mao-hong, QI Jing-cheng, YANG Shu, TU Zheng-bo, WANG Bin, WU Jing-wen. Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(11): 871-874. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.11.008

自回归移动平均模型乘积季节模型在南昌市手足口病疫情预测中的应用

doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.11.008
基金项目: 

南昌市科技局支撑计划项目(洪财企[2012]37号社会发展-14-1)

Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease

Funds: 

This study was supported by the fund from Nanchang Municipal Science and Technology Bureau (No.2012:37-14-1)

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)乘积季节模型在手足口病预测中的应用,对手足口病的月发病数进行趋势预测.方法 收集南昌市2009年1月至2012年12月手足口病的月发病数资料建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,并对预测结果进行评价.结果 在手足口病预测中建立ARIMA乘积季节模型的最优模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)×(1,1,0)12模型,正态化的BIC为(贝叶斯信息准测)12.31.结论 建立的ARIMA模型能较好地拟合和预测南昌市手足口病的月发病数,为手足口病的防治提供参考依据.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-03-12
  • 刊出日期:  2014-11-20

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