ARIMA模型在宝鸡市手足口病预警预测中的应用

陈小英 张义 刘峰 王林江 李广智 陈飒

陈小英, 张义, 刘峰, 王林江, 李广智, 陈飒. ARIMA模型在宝鸡市手足口病预警预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(6): 492-497. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.06.012
引用本文: 陈小英, 张义, 刘峰, 王林江, 李广智, 陈飒. ARIMA模型在宝鸡市手足口病预警预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(6): 492-497. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.06.012
CHEN Xiao-ying, ZHANG Yi, LIU Feng, WANG Lin-jiang, LI Guang-zhi, CHEN Sa. Application of ARIMA model in prediction of hand foot and mouth disease in Baoji City[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(6): 492-497. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.06.012
Citation: CHEN Xiao-ying, ZHANG Yi, LIU Feng, WANG Lin-jiang, LI Guang-zhi, CHEN Sa. Application of ARIMA model in prediction of hand foot and mouth disease in Baoji City[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(6): 492-497. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.06.012

ARIMA模型在宝鸡市手足口病预警预测中的应用

doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.06.012

Application of ARIMA model in prediction of hand foot and mouth disease in Baoji City

  • 摘要: 目的 利用时间序列分析方法动态研究手足口病发病趋势,探讨合理的预测模型,为宝鸡市制定手足口病的预防控制措施提供决策依据。方法 应用时间序列分析方法对宝鸡市2008-2014年手足口病月发病数据进行分析并建立预测模型,对建立的预测模型进行参数估计、模型诊断、模型评价,选择最优预测模型,利用所得到的模型对2015年1-6月的发病情况进行预测,并评价其预测效果。结果 通过参数和模型拟合优度检验以及残差白噪声序列检验,得到模型ARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1)12,R2=0.820,标准化的BIC=10.507,Ljung-Box=4.631(P=0.995),2015年1-6月手足口病月发病数预测值和实际值的平均相对误差仅为2.34%,实际值都在95%可信区间内,建立的ARIMA模型的拟合精度和预测效果较为理想。结论 ARIMA模型能较好的模拟宝鸡市手足口病的发病趋势,预测效果可信。
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  • 收稿日期:  2015-09-16
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