2014-2015年湖北省仙桃市气温与手足口病报告发病关联性分析

赵球平 李旭东 王悦 鲍俊哲 Aristotle Sun

赵球平, 李旭东, 王悦, 鲍俊哲, Aristotle Sun. 2014-2015年湖北省仙桃市气温与手足口病报告发病关联性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007
引用本文: 赵球平, 李旭东, 王悦, 鲍俊哲, Aristotle Sun. 2014-2015年湖北省仙桃市气温与手足口病报告发病关联性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007
Zhao Qiuping, Li Xudong, Wang Yue, Bao Junzhe, Aristotle Sun. Analysis on influence of air temperature on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiantao, Hubei, 2014-2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007
Citation: Zhao Qiuping, Li Xudong, Wang Yue, Bao Junzhe, Aristotle Sun. Analysis on influence of air temperature on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiantao, Hubei, 2014-2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007

2014-2015年湖北省仙桃市气温与手足口病报告发病关联性分析

doi: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007
基金项目: 

国家重大科学研究计划(No.2012CB955500,2012CB955504)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    赵球平,男,湖北省仙桃市人,在职硕士研究生,主要从事疾病监测工作

  • 中图分类号: R512.5

Analysis on influence of air temperature on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiantao, Hubei, 2014-2015

Funds: 

This study was supported by the fund for National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2012CB955500, 2012CB955504)

  • 摘要: 目的 探索湖北省仙桃市气温对手足口病发病的影响,初步建立手足口病的预警温度范围。方法 仙桃市为研究区域,通过收集该市气温监测数据和疾病监测数据进行相关分析,运用R软件的分布滞后非线性模型初步分析气温对手足口病发病的影响。结果 当仙桃市日平均气温在15~18℃,手足口病发病风险升高;温度为17.33℃时相对危险度(RR)值最大,为1.16 (95% CI:1.078~1.259),日平均气温对手足口病的发病存在滞后效应,滞后5 d;日平均气温在-2~0℃时,滞后0~2 d,RR值增高。结论 仙桃市手足口病存在预警范围(15~18℃),尤其在17.33℃时,发病RR值最高;气温对手足口病的发病存在滞后效应,可通过建立温度与发病模型预测预警手足口病发病情况,为开展疾病防控及病因研究提供参考依据。
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  • 收稿日期:  2018-03-30

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