赵球平, 李旭东, 王悦, 鲍俊哲, Aristotle Sun. 2014-2015年湖北省仙桃市气温与手足口病报告发病关联性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007
引用本文: 赵球平, 李旭东, 王悦, 鲍俊哲, Aristotle Sun. 2014-2015年湖北省仙桃市气温与手足口病报告发病关联性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007
Zhao Qiuping, Li Xudong, Wang Yue, Bao Junzhe, Aristotle Sun. Analysis on influence of air temperature on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiantao, Hubei, 2014-2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007
Citation: Zhao Qiuping, Li Xudong, Wang Yue, Bao Junzhe, Aristotle Sun. Analysis on influence of air temperature on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiantao, Hubei, 2014-2015[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2018, 33(6): 469-472. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2018.06.007

2014-2015年湖北省仙桃市气温与手足口病报告发病关联性分析

Analysis on influence of air temperature on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiantao, Hubei, 2014-2015

  • 摘要: 目的 探索湖北省仙桃市气温对手足口病发病的影响,初步建立手足口病的预警温度范围。方法 仙桃市为研究区域,通过收集该市气温监测数据和疾病监测数据进行相关分析,运用R软件的分布滞后非线性模型初步分析气温对手足口病发病的影响。结果 当仙桃市日平均气温在15~18℃,手足口病发病风险升高;温度为17.33℃时相对危险度(RR)值最大,为1.16 (95% CI:1.078~1.259),日平均气温对手足口病的发病存在滞后效应,滞后5 d;日平均气温在-2~0℃时,滞后0~2 d,RR值增高。结论 仙桃市手足口病存在预警范围(15~18℃),尤其在17.33℃时,发病RR值最高;气温对手足口病的发病存在滞后效应,可通过建立温度与发病模型预测预警手足口病发病情况,为开展疾病防控及病因研究提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the influence of air temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD)in Xiantao of Hubei province,and establish an early warning temperature range of HFMD. Methods Air temperature surveillance data and disease surveillance data in Xianto were collected to analyze the association between air temperature and incidence of HFMD, and nonlinear distribution lag model was used to analyze the influence of air temperature on HFMD incidence. Results When the air temperature was at 15-20℃,especially at 17.33℃,the max RR was highest (1.16,95% CI:1.078-1.259)and there was a lag effect of daily average temperature on the incidence of HFMD. A lag of 5 days was observed. When air temperature was at -2-0℃,a lag of 0-2 days was observed. The RR increased. Conclusion The early warning temperature range of HFMD was 15-18℃,the RR was highest at 17.33℃. There was a lag effect of daily average temperature on the incidence of HFMD. A prediction model using air temperature parameter can be established for the early warning of HFMD,early response to possible HFMD epidemic and etiological study.

     

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