洪志恒, 李超, 王锐, 邢薇佳, 陈秋兰, 孟玲, 曹洋, 涂文校, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2014年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(9): 680-683. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.09.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 李超, 王锐, 邢薇佳, 陈秋兰, 孟玲, 曹洋, 涂文校, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2014年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(9): 680-683. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.09.003
HONG Zhi-heng, LI Chao, WANG Rui, XING Wei-jia, CHEN Qiu-lan, MENG ling, CAO Yang, TU Wen-xiao, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in China, September 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(9): 680-683. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.09.003
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, LI Chao, WANG Rui, XING Wei-jia, CHEN Qiu-lan, MENG ling, CAO Yang, TU Wen-xiao, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in China, September 2014[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(9): 680-683. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2014.09.003

2014年9月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in China, September 2014

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2014年9月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。 结果 根据既往数据分析,结合近期全国突发公共卫生事件形势,预计2014年9月全国突发公共卫生事件数较8月将有所增加,但报告事件数不会超过2011年以来同期平均水平;报告事件将以传染病事件(如登革热、霍乱、菌痢等)和食物中毒为主。我国面临埃博拉出血热输入的风险,但基于我国目前的发现、诊断和控制能力,病例输入后发生疫情扩散的可能性低;但值得注意的是,该病病死率极高,一旦出现输入性病例会造成较大的社会影响。当前我国面临登革热输入和本地暴发的双重压力,广东省和云南省已出现本地暴发疫情,广西、福建、浙江和海南等南方重点省(自治区)疫情存在局部暴发的可能。随着各类学校和幼托机构陆续开学,学校和幼托机构中流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、水痘等传染病暴发疫情和食物中毒事件的发生风险有所上升。国庆长假临近,各地卫生部门应提前做好旅行卫生提示,并加强节日期间的卫生监管和应急值守工作。 结论 2014年9月全国突发公共卫生事件较8月将略有升高;需重点关注我国登革热、手足口病、食物中毒事件,以及埃博拉出血热疫情对我国的影响。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in September 2014. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of the surveillance data and the incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in September compared with August, but would not be higher than the average level at same period since 2011. The major forms would be the outbreaks of dengue fever, cholera and bacillary dysentery, as well as food poisoning. The risk of the spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists. Given China's capabilities to detect, diagnose and control diseases, the possibility of further transmission of EVD in China is low, but the case fatality of EVD is very high, it would pose serious threaten to public health in China once the importation of EVD occurs. Now China is facing the challenges of both imported dengue fever and indigenous dengue fever outbreak because the indigenous outbreaks have occurred in Guangdong and Yunnan provinces, and there is possibility of local dengue fever outbreak in Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang and Hainan provinces. As the new term begins in September, the risk of outbreaks of influenza, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and varicella would increase in schools and child care settings. National Day holidays is approaching, it is necessary for health departments at all levels to make early travel health advice and strengthen the health supervision and public health emergency response preparation. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies would slightly increase in September compared with August. Close attention should be paid to the incidences of dengue fever, HFMD and food poisoning, as well as the risk of EVD's spread to China.

     

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