洪志恒, 常昭瑞, 涂文校, 任瑞琦, 孟玲, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2016年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(3): 181-184. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.03.003
引用本文: 洪志恒, 常昭瑞, 涂文校, 任瑞琦, 孟玲, 倪大新, 金连梅. 2016年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2016, 31(3): 181-184. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.03.003
HONG Zhi-heng, CHANG Zhao-rui, TU Wen-xiao, REN Rui-qi, MENG Ling, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(3): 181-184. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.03.003
Citation: HONG Zhi-heng, CHANG Zhao-rui, TU Wen-xiao, REN Rui-qi, MENG Ling, NI Da-xin, JIN Lian-mei. Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2016[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2016, 31(3): 181-184. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.03.003

2016年3月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, March 2016

  • 摘要: 目的 评估2016年3月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计全国3月总报告事件数和病例数将较2月有所升高。近期我国已出现寨卡病毒病输入病例,预计3月我国将会继续发现输入病例,广东、云南、海南、福建、广西和浙江等重点省份存在发生本地传播可能。当前处于人感染禽流感高发季节,我国将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感以及其他亚型动物流感的散发病例。3月中上旬,全国将陆续进入手足口病流行季节。中东呼吸综合征在沙特、阿联酋和阿曼等地持续有散发病例报告,我国仍存在输入风险,但进一步播散的风险低。结论 2016年3月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,将较2月上升;需关注寨卡病毒病、人禽流感、手足口病、中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情引发的公共卫生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in March 2016. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be higher in March than that in February 2016. More imported Zika virus infection cases would be found and autochthonous Zika virus transmission might occur in Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang provinces. More sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and other animal influenza virus would occur. The activity of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) would increase seasonally. The risk of importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) to China still exists, but the possibility of large-scale transmission in China is very low. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in March would be higher than that in February 2016, similar to that in previous years. Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of Zika virus infection, human infection of avian influenza virus, HFMD and MERS.

     

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